Like the nation as a whole, the economic fortunes of the counties poised to decide November’s election are starting to show early signs of distress.
From Reno, Nevada, to the Midwest to the suburbs of Atlanta, unemployment rates that were recently at all-time lows have begun to creep back up. Meanwhile, housing costs have exploded in these regions, creating divides between homeowners and renters.
In other words, these seven counties — part of NBC News’ “The Deciders” project — are microcosms of the U.S. economy writ large.
This article also uses the NBC News Home Buyer Index, which looks at cost, competition, scarcity and economic instability to determine how difficult it is to buy in every county across the U.S. Judged on a scale of 0-100, a higher value indicates a higher difficulty. The national score is 85.3.
Many of these “decider” counties enjoy a diverse economic base and dynamic population that will position them to better withstand a more severe downturn. In nearly every case, these counties have lower unemployment rates than the current national average of 4.3%. Most also saw population inflows during the pandemic that, while putting pressure on local housing markets, signaled they maintain persistently desirable qualities.
And while economic mobility is just one facet of voters’ mindsets heading into the fall, it consistently remains the top concern, ahead of governmental leadership and immigration, according to the most recent Gallup Poll.
During the 2008-2009 housing crisis, Phoenix became known as a focal point for the wave of home foreclosures that swept over the U.S. economy.
Today, Phoenix home prices are booming again — but there’s no sign of a crash. An influx of pandemic-era migration, mostly residents from California seeking relatively cheaper housing, has pushed home prices skyward. But demand remains steady, and thanks to a shortage of more affordable units, prices are poised to stay elevated.
Buyers need an annual income of approximately $102,000 if they’re putting 20% down on the median single-family home priced at $495,000 with a 6.85% mortgage rate, according to an NBC News analysis of Redfin data.
“Phoenix experienced much more rapid inflation than the national economy … and housing is the single biggest component,” said George Hammond, director with the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management.
“Housing affordability and where prices are at the moment is on the minds of voters in Arizona,” Hammond, who is also a research professor at the university, said.
Today, Arizona’s Central Valley has diversified away from housing toward a much more services-oriented economy, especially in health care and professional and business services. At 3.4%, the county’s unemployment rate is nearly a full percentage point lower than the U.S. average of 4.3%.
“We’ve got a very tight, dynamic labor market that has generated rapid population growth,” Hammond said.
Donald Trump won Maricopa County in 2016, but Joe Biden flipped it in 2020.